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Will the Fed cut rates at the next FOMC meeting?68.8%168bpWill BTC close above $150,000 on December 31, 2026?37.8%58bpWill the incumbent party hold the House majority in the 2026 midterms?40.2%99bpWill US headline CPI print below 2.5% year-over-year?52.6%159bpWill ETH reclaim a $10,000 spot price before 2027?29.1%175bpWill the S&P 500 post a 10% drawdown from its all-time high?46.8%157bpWill there be a formal ceasefire agreement signed before July 2026?27.4%78bpWill the US federal government shut down before March 31, 2026?34.3%170bpWill Manchester City win the Premier League this season?44.4%26bpWill Nvidia report data center revenue above $45B in a single quarter?63.1%28bpWill SOL flip ETH by market cap before 2028?12.9%37bpWill a frontier lab release a model scoring above 90% on SWE-bench Verified?56.8%70bpWill the Fed cut rates at the next FOMC meeting?68.8%168bpWill BTC close above $150,000 on December 31, 2026?37.8%58bpWill the incumbent party hold the House majority in the 2026 midterms?40.2%99bpWill US headline CPI print below 2.5% year-over-year?52.6%159bpWill ETH reclaim a $10,000 spot price before 2027?29.1%175bpWill the S&P 500 post a 10% drawdown from its all-time high?46.8%157bpWill there be a formal ceasefire agreement signed before July 2026?27.4%78bpWill the US federal government shut down before March 31, 2026?34.3%170bpWill Manchester City win the Premier League this season?44.4%26bpWill Nvidia report data center revenue above $45B in a single quarter?63.1%28bpWill SOL flip ETH by market cap before 2028?12.9%37bpWill a frontier lab release a model scoring above 90% on SWE-bench Verified?56.8%70bp
PO

Will there be a formal ceasefire agreement signed before July 2026?

Consensus27.4%
Best YES27.1%KAL
Divergence78 bps
24h Volume$793.5K
Liquidity$2.1M
Resolves67d 05h 56m
Venues2
PolymarketPM27.8%
KalshiKAL27.1%BEST
Consensus27.4%24h Vol$793.5KBestKAL 27.1%
AgeSideVenuePriceSharesTotalTrader
3sNOKAL26.8%23.0K$6,174wwcv…kmPK
19sNOKAL27.0%20$5taZr…u2GM
1mNOKAL26.5%23.7K$6,289861n…VRL8
4mNOPM28.0%20.8K$5,805zgWu…ehDM
6mYESKAL27.8%6.0K$1,681q2YP…kEgn
6mNOKAL26.6%3.0K$792QygV…fNVf
9mNOKAL26.5%1.1K$304gPVE…5chy
10mNOPM28.1%20$6FAkf…NekP
13mYESPM27.4%13.9K$3,812PCUz…YbEU
14mNOKAL26.3%155$41Yn3t…XkUw
14mYESKAL27.3%1.9K$506hWof…yGWj
16mYESPM27.7%8.9K$2,472L4AY…qpic
17mYESPM28.1%9.6K$2,681rBuW…qqgh
18mYESKAL27.1%14.4K$3,897dzcy…XK3Z
19mNOKAL26.3%1.4K$3585Y2i…LSdZ
20mNOKAL27.7%1.7K$458ne3V…fa2a
24mNOKAL27.5%13.2K$3,629ZM8u…iuV6
24mNOPM27.7%80$22F6sq…1eTc
24mNOKAL26.6%5.2K$1,375MHtb…hgML
28mYESKAL27.3%13.1K$3,577fX5p…PZcA
29mNOKAL27.7%940$260y9m2…f2Xx
30mYESKAL27.3%9.2K$2,522sCgc…qzS9
30mYESKAL27.9%3.4K$933QK9M…xzRD
31mYESKAL26.3%2.8K$726Du3g…ZozR
35mYESKAL26.7%21.7K$5,789YYp5…8dAk
36mYESPM28.3%1.3K$354s1fg…Am1b
40mYESPM27.0%20$58yFr…ijzq
40mYESPM28.0%40$118zPq…wXkt
41mYESKAL26.4%10.8K$2,857qP6g…doiV
44mNOKAL27.8%3.0K$845P4hf…hnNn
44mNOKAL26.6%75$20Hbnu…LAZP
45mYESKAL26.3%40$11pZn8…o2Fo
47mNOKAL27.0%10.4K$2,800WgcX…xAF5
51mYESPM27.3%40$11HPBr…F8Kv
51mYESPM27.5%1.6K$428PeRE…JK5K
53mNOPM28.5%20$6ZRBc…dvTi
53mYESKAL26.7%7.3K$1,947ftnW…vmuR
54mYESPM27.7%10.5K$2,907TDJL…SaBD
54mNOKAL27.7%14.1K$3,894zmBb…1AAZ
55mNOKAL26.4%2.0K$536xovh…HbNQ
57mYESKAL26.8%880$2351euS…q7Ya
57mNOPM28.4%2.1K$601VhTS…Dc6m
59mYESPM27.5%2.9K$799oGGa…b6FE
59mNOKAL26.5%2.1K$550B9nn…y16X
1hNOPM28.4%13.6K$3,855UMxo…U4AS
1hNOPM27.9%175$49Shhp…aQ72
1hNOPM27.3%65$18G7hG…fDnf
1hYESKAL27.2%19.0K$5,167qJFC…Hhd4
1hYESKAL27.8%255$71Ckgx…a2uG
1hNOKAL26.7%20$5zQYs…3fU8
1hYESKAL26.3%165$43Mxhi…sCBn
1hNOPM28.2%30$8cB89…KKx5
1hNOPM28.0%20$6jsDy…bgZG
1hNOPM28.2%465$131DmSc…88S2
1hNOKAL26.4%2.7K$721HgsH…bkLN
1hYESPM27.7%25$7JEaw…qLXm
1hNOKAL27.1%4.9K$1,316BoYf…Luej
1hYESKAL27.3%970$26595R8…qG2y
1hYESPM27.1%9.7K$2,632hRMh…wuVp
1hYESPM27.5%360$991MzU…Am2M
2
Not connected
TIF
USDC
Best executionsaves 78 bps
Avg price27.06¢
Shares369.55
Max payout$369.55
Potential profit+$269.55
Est. slippage / fee0 bps · $0.20

routes to Kalshi · 2 venues compared

Security & Audit
70
Insider66/100
Wash4/100
Creator0%
Liq Depth$2.1M
medium reliability Ambiguous wording binary
2 venues connected$2.1M liquidity
Resolution: UN Security Council Recordpolitics
Terminal — Soldex